GOPIO NEWS BULLETIN

December, 2001

 

1. Community Organizations Join GOPIO in NY Solidarity Meeting

Twenty five community organization joined GOPIO in a solidarity meeting held in New York at the Crowne Plaza Hotel on Sunday, September 23rd evening. There were several prominent political and community leaders who paid tributes to those who lost their lives at the terrorist attacks on America. Dignitaries included, Congressman Benjamin Gilman, Congressman Gregory Meeks, member of Indian parliament Sunil Dutt and NY city, state and county officials. The program was coordinated GOPIO New York Coordinator Lal Motwani, GOPIO Secretary General Ashook Ramsaran and GOPIO President Dr. Thomas Abraham.

2. GOPIO and South Asian Council for Social Services (SACSS) Help the Victims

The South Asian Council for Social Services organized several counseling services for the families of victims of the World Trade Center tragedy.  GOPIO joined the SACSS to financially help several families of the WTC tragedy. The efforts are coordinated by SACCS President Sudha Acharya (E-mail: sacharya@netzero.net)

 

3. GOPIO Co-Sponsors Indian American Senior Citizens Conference

 

The National Indian American Association of Senior Citizens (NIAASC) held its 4th annual conference and meeting at the Indian American Kerala Cultural and Civic Center in Elmont, New York York on November 10th. The intensive and positive interactive fourth 'Conference on Seniors' brought into limelight some of the issues faced by seniors, but not recognized so far in public. The conference was addressed by eminent professionals in respective fields, and questions raised by some 40 seniors participating raised some major concerns based on their direct or indirect experience. The subjects discussed in the conference were: Housing for Seniors, including Assisted Living; Medicaid, Respite Care and Transportation issues faced by seniors.

 

In his welcoming remarks, Dr. Thomas Abraham briefly outlined the progress NIAASC has made and how the Indian American Kerala Center and NIAASC have worked cooperatively. As president of GOPIO and chairman of the Kerala Center Board of Directors, ( Both sponsors of the conference) he also underscored the importance of addressing issues of seniors by community-based organizations.

 

In his opening remarks, Mr. Rajeshwar Prasad, president of NIAASC and Conference Coordinator, brought to the attention of participants the process in selecting the subjects for NIAASC conferences. He informed that in the previous three conferences, NIAASC had addressed Social Security, Medicare, Long Term Care, Programs and Services Available to Seniors, Conflicts and Compromises Faced by Senior Immigrants, and Process in Developing a Senior Citizen Program by a Community-Based Entity. In deciding the issues for this conference, Mr. Prasad stated, NIAASC recognized questions raised by seniors at two collaborative conferences NIAASC had participated with the India Association of Long Island, as well as the questions raised by the listeners to the International TV where NIAASC representatives had appeared on 'Live and Call-In Programs, twice after the third conference held in November 2000. He also added that the regular flow of questions which are brought to the attention of NIAASC through its toll-free telephone also suggested that these issues be addressed. For example in three different telephone calls from Illinois, New Jersey and New York, people who just turned 65 asked what is the process of enrolling in Medicaid, including one of these callers who had Medicare, wanted to enroll for Medicaid since Medicare does not provide adequate coverage. Mr. Prasad also focused on one of the most important ingredients of NIAASC that 'the underlying theme of NIAASC is not to reinvent the wheels, but to identify services already existing and through community groups persuade the seniors to take advantage of those services. He also emphasized the need for programs to meet the social, cultural needs of seniors, which may require to initiate new activities or work in

collaboration with existing ones.

 

The speakers and panelists during this six-hour conference included Doug Aloise, Housing Administrator, Catholic Charities Department of Housing; Mel Cooperman, Legislative Assistant for American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) also a sponsor of the conference, Carol Hunt, Executive Director, Jamaica Services Program for Older Adults; Paola Miceli, Director of Health and Human Services, Queens Borough, New York; Carol O'Neill, Director of Respite Program with the Education & Assistance Corporation; Richard Campanella, Director of Medicaid, Nassau County Department of Social Services; and Tom Nasti, a Manager with the MTALI Bus. The morning session on Housing for Seniors and Assisted Living was moderated by Dr. Sushila Gidwani-Buschi, member of the Board of Directors of NIAASC, and the afternoon session on Medicaid, Respite Care and Transportation was moderated by Dr. Ashwin Pandya, NIAASC Vice President. The speakers were introduced by Mr. M.K.Ramasubramanian, NIAASC Board member and Ashok Satkalmi DCSW, Vice President of NIAASC. Mr. Manoj K. Patel, a practicing attorney on Immigration and NIAASC Board member proposed a vote of thanks and also recognized individuals and organizations sponsoring the conference.

 

The NIAASC also held its second General Body Meeting. The NIAASC president, Mr. Prasad, submitted the annual report. He highlighted, among other significant accomplishments during the year, the collaborative efforts of NIAASC with community groups: India Association of Long Island, Hindu Temple Society of North America (one of the sponsors of the conference), and an Emerging Group in Pennsylvania. He also directed the attention of all to the web site of NIAASC (www.niaasc.org) where one can find reports of previous conferences, its two newsletters and host of linkages with governmental and non-governmental agencies providing services and information to seniors. He also urged that the toll-free telephone number of NIAASC is available to all

for leaving messages (1-866-6-NIAASC).

 

In summary, the Conference reinforced the basic rationale for NIAASC, namely - being principally an Information-Referral-Resource Agency and an advocacy group for Seniors working in conjunction with but not competing with other organizations serving Seniors. In this context, this year's conference, besides building upon the experiences of prior conferences, opened up new vistas for Seniors seeking help and guidance. Judging from the reactions and the questions fielded by attendees the conference could truly be acclaimed a success in terms of NIAASC's goals and objectives.

 

4. GOPIO/NetIP (NY) HOLIDAY PARTY AND DINNER/TALK,

Friday, Dec. 14th, New York city

 

PIO Duo Speak on Current U.S. Recession at GOPIO/NetIp Meeting

 

In March this year, Mr. Lakshman Achuthan and Dr. Anirvan Banerji startled the business world by announcing that the US had entered a period of recession, after a decade of the longest and most sustained growth in its history. Late November, recession was officially announced by the US government. Achuthan and Banerji were speakers at the Holiday party organized by the Global Organization of People of Indian Origin (GOPIO) and Network of Indian Professionals (NetIP NY) held at the Maharaja Restaurant in New York on December 14th.

 

In his wlecome adress, GOPIO President, Dr. Abraham Abraham said that GOPIO has over a dozen chapters now and hopes to increase that number to 35 by end of 2002. Net IP (NY) President Mr. Suresh Peddu said that his organization would work with organizations such as GOPIO to extend services to the community. The chief guest for the evening was Mr. R.K. Singh, Consul for Commerce at the Indian Consulate who provided brief overviews of the current Indian economy. He stated that since India had followed a different path, it had escaped the severe recessions, which had occurred in the Asian tiger economies.

 

GOPIO New York coordinator Mr Lal Motwani was recognized for the distinguished service award he had received recently from the New York

Managerial Employees Association. Following these formalities, the main speakers, the lucid and erudite duo Achuthan and Dr. Banerji of the Economic Cycles Research Institute (ECRI) took the center stage who spoke on the current recession in the US economy with special reference to IT bust.

 

Achuthan is the managing director and Dr. Banerji the director of research of ECRI.  Achuthan has appeared on CNN, the Lou Dobbs show and on NBC, talking about economics and current money matters. Dr Banerji, an IIT, IISc and Columbia alumnus, is the Director of Research at ECRI. When all the economic pundits predicted, confidently, that the cycles of recession were over and the US could, perhaps, expect only a rising and sustainable, healthy business scene, these two gentlemen predicted that this was, alas, not so.

 

Achuthan explained that there has been a long tradition of cyclical recessions. The National Bureau of Economic Research was their starting point for research and they worked at The Center for International Business Cycles, now called ECRI. A recession is a pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline in output, income, employment and sales. A two quarter GDP decline is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a recession. Finding the turning points with a fair degree of accuracy is difficult and this was where their expertise came in. This is easier to predict in a free market economy than in a controlled economy where various other factors may come in to play. He explained that a linear forecast has its limitations because the turning point is often bypassed and the recession not detected early. This is what the institute works on, anticipating and finding these crucial turning points because they help business and individuals plan their finances and business operations better, with a fuller understanding of the trends and climate they can expect. He explained leading, coinciding and lagging tendencies. Leading indications anticipate the business cycle, coincidental indicators move in step with it while lagging ones follow the cycle. When the consensus forecast the economy was still booming, they had missed some of these indications. The two showed us their simplified models and indicated the parameters of domestic trade, (i.e. manufacture, construction and services) and the foreign trade (i.e. exports and imports). Inflation and employment were two major indices. ECRI looks at a dozen leading indices and various business cycles of all the G7, emerging markets and, of course, the Indian economy.

 

The trouble began when people started thinking this was a different era, business cycles with dramatic boom or bust tendencies were a thing of the past. People started predicting that downturns could be avoided and the business cycles were perhaps finally being tamed, if not avoided. These were errors in judgment. Everybody touted IT, "We are such a productive economy", was the cry. The consequences were that stock prices bubbled up and there was overbuilding of capacity. The rallying cry was, "Buy when the prices are low". Almost all of US capital was IT related. Slowdowns caused corporate profits to fall and this led to a fall in investment. The effect of the hike in the world's interest rates was felt. IT suppliers felt these cycles the most, as most of their equipment is cyclical. "How ironic that the producers of the equipment that was to have eliminated the inventory cycle are themselves its foremost victims," said Stephen Cecchetti on Aug 22 this year. The I of IT, the critical information was what was not noticed.

 

When asked for the IT outlook for India, they said that recession will go, time and effort will do this. They said that the stronger the downturn, perhaps the sharper will be the upturn. Low cost producers of goods could be the beneficiaries and pointed to Dell, which is gaining a larger part of the market share. When asked about these offers of large interest free loans now available, they said this was to keep the consumer going, to help him buy and stimulate companies.

 

Dr. Banerji said taming the cycle could not be done. How could negative growth and recession be removed? If the rate of growth is already high, the dips could be, at best, reduced. The trend towards recession is the same but the dips are not felt as much since the volatility is low. What people thought had happened when smaller dips occurred: they simply assumed that they had disappeared rather than note that they were low. But they had made a major leap of faith while the facts indicated otherwise. The more optimistic followers of Keynes felt booms and busts could be eliminated.

 

The answer in his judgment, was no, they could not be eliminated. Alan Greenspan was not fooled and knew the dip would come. The Goldilocks theory of the porridge being just right was, alas, a dream. The porridge could get too hot as the Japanese expansion of '99 showed. However, because inventory cycles are more controlled, volatility was lower.

 

The nineties were characterized by a synchronous recession in first, the English speaking countries and then, in the Far Eastern markets. The Japanese economy, the world's second largest expanded, import prices started rising, interest rates increased. OPEC saw a demand for oil going up. Then there was a sharp slowdown. People expect patterns to continue and there is a lag in recognition of changes. Japan was a case, a persistent lag of recognition on an international scale. The IT sector blinded people to the impact of economic slowdown. It grew because it was a young industry, the error lay in thinking that this sector was immune and that set up the fall.

 

Dr. Banerji stated that there was fundamentally, a good growth period for IT in India. IT is a cyclical industry and if these cycles were understood by Indian companies, they would be more prepared for them, rather than get nasty surprises. Indian IT has its own niche markets and is strong, the growth is strong and not negative. It is still small, focused and caters to niche markets. Companies should pay attention to trends and understand when a slowdown might be expected and not forget that these slowdowns do occur. People need to learn these lessons!

 

When asked if recovery was in the offing, they said that recovery trends are there but not yet persistent, pronounced or pervasive, not yet strong enough. This current period could last as long as June or July and with enough indications, this could be predicted more exactly. They encouraged everyone to visit their site: www.businesscycle.com  as it is updated every Friday.

 

There was some discussion of luck as a factor and whether this was a frivolous index. The men said it was important to understand that sometimes luck did play a part and to attribute success to it rather than to skills or judgment, which were not really there. The diagnosis is enormously different.

 

All these variables can be refined further. While this information may not make anyone rich and predict turns with total accuracy, this information is important and "helps you sleep a little better"! For business, it means understanding when a slump may be expected and forewarned is, of course, forearmed. They also said that since today 80% of the people here are in services, the same dramatic dips may not occur.

 

Achuthan and Dr. Banerji are talented and clear speakers who made it easy for even non-economists to understand their reasoning and their points and how they worked at predicting business trends. "Now, if they could guide us, as simply and as elegantly, to making more money as well, " said one attendee.

 

For more E-Mail: gopio@optonline.net, Website: www.gopio.net

 

5. GOPIO’s TRIBUTE TO LATE CONGRESSMAN DILIP SINGH SAUND

 

The Global Organization of People of Indian Origin (GOPIO), the Indian American Friendship Council and the Global Punjabi Diaspora, Inc. are jointly sponsoring a tribute banquet dinner celebrating the 45th anniversary of the swearing in ceremony of the first Asian American, late Dalip S. Saund as U.S. Congressman. The gala banquet is being organized at 5.00 P.M. on Sunday, January 13, 2002 at Cerritos Sheraton Hotel (near Los Angeles, California), preceded by a 2-hour seminar on the contributions of Indian American pioneers.

 

The tribute will consist of a banquet dinner, a seminar and a documentary about the pioneers. Two congressmen who currently share the old 29th congressional district of late Congressman Saund, all the three Indian American state legislators and many other dignitaries and Saund family members are invited. 

 

Congressman Dalip Singh Saund was the first Indian American and first Asian American elected to the US Congress. Thus far, he is the only Indian American who occupied this highly visible and honorable position.  He was first elected in 1956 and reelected in 1958 and 1960 and while contesting election in 1962, he suffered a stroke and could not win his fourth term. He set a precedent for many Asians to follow him in the U.S. Congress. He remains a beacon of hope and a worthy example to follow for many Indian Americans seeking political office.

 

Dalip Singh Saund came to USA in 1920 and received MA in 1922 and Ph.D. in 1924 in Mathematics from U.C. Berkley. On graduation, his choice of professions and jobs in those days was very limited. He started his first job as a foreman of a cotton-picking gang at a farming ranch, a job that hardly required any schooling much less a college degree. A few years later, he himself became a farmer and ventured into growing of lettuce. But being a foreigner in U.S.A. from India, he was not allowed to become a citizen or own a home or land. So, to make a living as a farmer, he had to lease the land and that too, in the name of someone else who was a citizen.

 

It was at a time when Indian immigrants were not welcomed in the United States. Saund along with some others, championed the cause of citizenship for Indians, which after long struggle was granted in 1946 by Congress. He became a U.S. citizen in 1949, got elected as judge and then U.S. Congressman. Till this day, no Indian American has yet matched his political success. But, every Indian American seeking political office, invokes Saund’s name. He is a source of inspiration and a worthy role model to look up to. It is Saund’s legacy that we would celebrate at the tribute dinner; it is the Indian American heritage that we will highlight at the seminar.

 

 GOPIO President-Elect, Inder singh said “if we, Indian Americans, want others to know about us, then we must first know who we are.” At the seminar, speakers would be expected to talk about our unsung pioneers, their contributions and the lessons we can learn from their remarkable achievements, including that of Dalip Singh Saund, pride of the Indian American community.

 

For participation, contact Inder Singh, GOPIO President-Elect, Tel: 818-708-3885. E-mail: indersinghusa@yahoo.com

 

6. NEW GOPIO CHAPTERS INITIATED.

 

With the amendments to GOPIO constitution last year, new city-based chapters are being initiated all over the world. The new chapters are already working in New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Harare, Durban and Zurich. One can initiate a chapter and become part of this global network of people of Indian origin by visiting GOPIO’s Chapter Initiative website, http://gopio.net/chapter_initiative.htm to get a copy of the guidelines governing GOPIO chapters. Alternately, call GOPIO’s International coordinator Dr. Jagat Motwani at 631-421-4288 in USA.

 

7. BUSINESS AND PREFESSIONAL SERVICES BULLETIN BOARD

 

PIOs are encouraged to publicize businesses and services though GOPIO Business Council Bulletin Board free of charge. Please visit http://gopio.net/wboard/bulletin.htm 

 

8. THIRD GLOBAL INDIAN ENTREPRENEURS CONFERENCE

 

The conference, which was postponed because of the terrorist attacks in New York, is rescheduled for September 20th to 23rd, 2002. Please visit www.gopio.net for updates.